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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.